January 14-20 Recap (-2.9U)

January 14: Syracuse +17, Kings 1H -1, Clippers -2, Indiana –2 Syracuse went into Cameron Indoor and put on an offensive showcase against Duke. Their defense was pretty awful, but they benefitted from the Tre Jones injury to pull off the upset in OT. The Kings reinforced the strategy of betting against teams on the second leg of a B2B in the first half against the Blazers. Indiana’s offense was atrocious at home vs Nebraska, which was pretty shocking. The home crowd kept emploring the Hoosiers to do anything, but they couldn’t get it going and lost a home conference matchup. Anthony Davis had a heck of a game in LA to lead NOLA to a victory over the Clippers in a game that was not as competitive as the final score may lead you to believe. Overall, not a bad start to the week, only losing .2U. Day total: -.2U

January 15: VT/UVA Under 124.5, Buffalo -14, Lakers -7, 76ers -6, ND/UNC Over 157 Virginia could not miss from the 3-point line in this game that was supposed to feature a lot of defense. They crushed the O/U mark of 124.5. Not much else to say on this one. Buffalo’s slow start put them behind the 8 ball when they had to cover 14 points on the road. They ended up turning it on late for an easy victory, but they didn’t have enough to cover. The Lakers bet came down to the final seconds as they somehow fouled a 3-point shooter with 2 seconds left up 9. Luckily, the Bulls player only made 2 of 3, forcing a push. The Jimmy Butler revenge game was real in Philly. They scored 83 in the first half and ended up winning by 42 for a stress-free cover. UNC and Notre Dame didn’t bring their best offense in this ACC matchup. It was objectively a good game, but ended up nowhere near enough points for the Over. Day total: -2.3U

January 16: Bucks -5.5, Rockets -5.5, Mavs +1, Auburn, Oklahoma, TTU ML Parlay The Bucks used a huge third quarter to take over vs the Grizzlies on the road. There was a little worry down the stretch, but they held on to cover 5.5. The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who blew an 8 point lead with a minute to play against the lowly Nets and ended up losing in OT. The Mavs had a tough 4th quarter at home, where they’ve played very well this year, and lost the game and the spread to the Spurs. The parlay went off the rails quite quickly with Oklahoma losing in the early window. At least TTU also lost so no hope was wasted. Day total: -2.3U

January 17: 76ers/Pacers Over 223.5, Bulls/Nuggets Over 213, Knicks/Wizards 1H Under 116 This day represents gambling in a nutshell (along with Saturday, but more on that later). The internet glitched when the Bulls/Nuggets over bet was going through, so it ended up going through twice. Not the best situation when you examine the Bulls offense. But, in a twist, the Bulls put up over 100 and the Nuggets had an unbelievable game shooting the ball leading to an easy Over. The Pacers did not have the same luck, struggling to score the ball in a home game. I’m still kicking myself over the Knicks/Wizards game. It was in London, so it makes sense that the scoring might go a little slowly, being in another continent and arena. Thinking that it would take some time to get acclimated to the environment, I took the first halt under. The Knicks came out red hot, and we were lucky to get a push. And of course, the full-game under hit easily. Thanks to the internet glitch, we actually came out positive on the day. Day total: +.85U

January 18: Buffalo -15.5, Blazers -3, Maryland +3, EMU/Buffalo Over 147.5 Buffalo was a let down once again, blowing a couple easy layups down the stretch that would’ve done them well on the way to a cover. Their offense also collapsed down the stretch forcing the Over to go out the window. Portland covered easily in a home game vs the Pelicans. Never a doubt in that one. The same can be said for Maryland, who took care of business on the road in Columbus. They ended up winning by 14, furthering the case that they are a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10. Day total: -.2U

January 19: Michigan -3.5, Florida/Georgia Over 134, Kansas -4.5, 76ers -2.5, Kentucky/Auburn Over 146.5, Pacers -7.5, Bulls +2, Lakers/Rockets 2H Over 113 This day was the perfect example that scared money is lost money. Started off the day 0-4, including a couple 2.5U bets on Kansas and the 76ers. But this didn’t stop us from pushing through. Finished the day 4-0, each a 2.5U bet, leading to a positive total. Let’s dive into how/why the bets hit or didn’t. Michigan looked good on the road for 30 minutes, but really fell apart down the stretch not having anyone to rely upon on offense. Also, they didn’t foul Ethan Happ in the post at all, even though he shoots less than 50% from the free-throw line. The Florida/Georgia game was awful to watch. Georgia couldn’t hold onto the ball in the first half, leading to double-digit turnovers (those don’t go well with the Over). Kansas had the same problem: turnovers. They somehow lost on the road to a West Virginia team that was 0-5 in the Big 12 going into that game. The 76ers got down 16 in the first quarter and couldn’t bounce back, even though they made it interesting down the stretch. The Jimmy Butler foul leading to a 4 point play was the dagger in that one. Now let’s look at the good outcomes. Kentucky and Auburn both shot the ball well from 3 point land, which led to an easy Over. The Pacers took care of business at home against a Mavs team that is just awful on the road. The Bulls, normally not a smart bet, again solidified the 1H vs a B2B team logic (even though they got crushed in the second half). The Rockets figured out their shooting problems during halftime of their game against the Lakers, and LA did enough on offense to smack the 2H Over. What a wild ride that was. Day total: +2.4U

January 20: FSU/BC Under 149, Saints -3, Rams/Saints Over 56, Patriots/Chiefs Over 56.5, Pats -3, Saints-3/Both Overs 56.5 Parlay Boston College decided to shoot the lights out for 3-point land in this early tip. The hope for this under went out the window pretty quickly. It was actually a good game, with BC making a comeback to further bury FSU in the ACC standings. The Saints got screwed over by a missed Pass Interference call late in the game and ended up blowing it in OT to the Rams, killing the hope that they would push late. The Over never had a chance either. Tom Brady is still the GOAT, and 38 4th quarter points propelled the Over in a game that looked like the Under all the way. Also got a little crazy with live bets in the NBA, and those are charted in the Results spreadsheet. Day Total: -1.15U

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